Sorry for the blogboys spam but this is what I wanted to do with the Elo system all along. I decided to post the rankings after realizing people might find them interesting, and now ya’ll get the predictions too. If you haven’t read my other post this is based purely on the Elo system (think chess), and my own thoughts and opinions hold no sway over these predictions. There’s some interesting data here but I’ll let you mull over it on your own.
(source code if you want it)
Methodology:
I took the expected outcome given the algorithms prediction and applied that to the series prediction. For example, Itachi has a 86% win probability over Diaspora.
(If you are wondering, the win probability comes from the Elo prediction algorithm.)
2 * .86 = 1.72
There are two games in a series; and in this specific series Elo predicts Itachi will win 1.72 of them. Obviously in DOTA you either win or you lose… so to get the series predictions:
win probability under 25% = 0 – 2
example) .19 * 2 = .38 expected wins (rounding down to 0 expected wins)
win probability between 25% — 75% = 1 – 1
example) .36 * 2 = .72 expected wins (rounding up to 1 expected win)
win probability over 75% = 2 – 0
example) .78 * 2 = 1.56 expected wins (rounding up to 2 expected wins)
This prediction set will obviously never be 100% accurate, but it might be informative to those making actual predictions.
